Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the draft budget for the next three years provides for the return of the budget rule only in 2025. This mechanism involves the purchase of foreign currency into Russian reserves in the event that world oil prices exceed the figure declared in the budget. In the summer, the Russian authorities planned to use the budget rule as a tool to put pressure on the Russian currency, which has appreciated too much due to the collapse of imports into the country. Now it is proposed to return to the budget rule only in 2025, TASS reports .
“The draft budget has been drawn up taking into account the parameters of the macroeconomic forecast, which takes into account the gradual recovery of the economy and the achievement of sustainable positive growth rates as early as 2024. It takes into account the normalization of budget policy and the gradual transition to budget rules in 2025, which provide for a primary balance of the budget,” Siluanov said.
At the same time, the budget for the coming years will be in deficit, it is planned to cover the deficit with the help of borrowing, the minister said. According to the document approved by the government, revenues in 2023 are projected at the level of 26.13 trillion rubles, expenses - 29.056 trillion. The budget deficit next year is estimated at 2.9 trillion rubles, or about 2% of GDP. The government plans to start replenishing Russian reserves, namely the National Welfare Fund (NWF), only in 2024, when it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the work of the budget rule. At the moment, the draft budget assumes a full return to the budget rule only in 2025.
The imposition of sanctions against Russia collapsed the flow of imports into the country, which led to a record trade surplus. These conditions made it possible to sharply strengthen the ruble exchange rate, which is completely unprofitable for the export-oriented industries of Russia: oil, coal, metallurgy, chemical, food, etc. The strengthening of the ruble made Russian producers uncompetitive, as representatives of industries have repeatedly told members of the government. However, the authorities do not intend to make concessions to business, on the contrary, they intend to impose additional taxes and fees on export industries in order to eliminate the "hole" in the budget. In total, the new taxes should help increase budget revenues in 2023 by 1.4 trillion rubles.