Moscow is getting cheaper
For the first six months of 2022, according to CIAN. Analytics”, the cost of renting apartments in Moscow decreased by 12% in rubles compared to prices at the beginning of February. Rental prices are falling almost everywhere: in the Moscow and Leningrad regions, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Perm, Voronezh, Krasnoyarsk, Orenburg, Ulyanovsk and Izhevsk.
Realtors were waiting for a seasonal increase in prices in the fall, but instead, mobilization began, and new offers flooded the market. If a by August the number of rented apartments in Moscow was 75% more than in February, then by October it was already 94%. Muscovites refuse to rent or urgently rent their own apartments and leave – abroad or to other cities in Russia.
In a hurry, apartments with repairs “for themselves” and furniture can be rented out for half the market value. In general, according to the Flats for Friends community, even designer apartments in prestigious areas of the capital have fallen in price by a third. If in January it took a long time to find such apartments and they were immediately rented out at a price of 1.5 thousand rubles per square meter, now their price is 900-1000 rubles per meter, and some owners complain that potential tenants answer something like "thank you, we like everything, but we will look at six more apartments in your building."
They also rent out apartments that they previously wanted to sell – during a period of instability, Russians traditionally value real estate more than cash.
Where do they leave Russia
There are still no statistics on departure after mobilization, but the war itself has already led to a record outflow of the population. According to the results of the first half of 2022, the population of Russia for the first time in many years decreased not only due to natural, but also due to migration. According to operational records for January-June 2022, the number of people who left Russia exceeded the number of those who arrived in it by 30%, which is almost 100,000 people. After the mobilization, this number increased many times over: almost 100 thousand people left through Kazakhstan in September alone (about half of them remained in the country), about the same number left through Georgia (how many remained in Georgia is unknown, but only in the first week of mobilization with On September 21-29 , there were 23 thousand remaining).
According to Spanish air travel booking service ForwardKeys, in the week of September 21-27 alone, the number of one-way tickets from Russia to Tbilisi, Almaty, Istanbul, Tel Aviv and Dubai tripled compared to the previous week. According to Reuters data, from January to October 2022, about 3 million people arrived in Turkey from Russia, which is 22% more than last year. How many of them remained in the country is not yet clear, but Elite Habitat realtors have calculated that one in five of the 145,000 apartments bought in Turkey in 2022 were purchased by Russians. Buying a property in Turkey entitles you to a residence permit.
As for the EU, statistics on migration are published by the Frontex agency. According to his latest report, from February 1 to September 27, 2022, 1.3 million Russians entered the EU countries, 1.27 million left, that is, at first glance, there was no large influx. But in some EU countries, the picture is different: for example, since the beginning of the war, 30,000 more Russians have come to Lithuania from Russia than have left for the Russian Federation, and given that the majority of Russians in Lithuania choose Vilnius, this is a significant influx for a city with a population of 600 thousands of people.
Lithuania
According to the Lithuanian apartment price index Ober-Haus, the annual increase in apartment prices in the largest cities of Lithuania amounted to 22%. Rent has skyrocketed especially: just a year ago, a one-room studio in Vilnius cost 600-800 euros per month, and today it is already 1200-1500 euros. To the 20,000 Russians who arrived, we must add about the same number of Ukrainian refugees. And this is the second surge in prices, because in 2020 the housing market was already in crisis due to the flow of refugees from Belarus, after Lukashenka, who lost the presidential election, switched to mass repression. Then, in the first year after the August 2020 elections, about 20,000 people left Belarus on humanitarian visas for Lithuania, and a one-room studio in Vilnius went up from 450-500 euros per month to 700 euros. Thus, if we count from 2020, renting apartments in Vilnius has become three times more expensive.
Armenia
In Armenia, the surge in prices has become especially noticeable. True, it is more difficult to determine the market price here, since in this country it is customary to bargain, and the declared rental price may be higher than the real one (which not all repatriates understand). Freelancers and IT specialists were the first to flood into Armenia after the war. For example, many employees of the Moscow "Yandex" and the entire office of a large Perm IT startup Miro now live here. Standard two-room apartments in Yerevan, which cost $300 a month in January, were rented out in February for $1,500. After the mobilization, prices for similar housing soared to $2,000 a month. In this case, an advance payment is required two to three months in advance, the contract is concluded for a year.
The surge in prices also hit the Armenians themselves: there are more cases when, after the expiration of the contract, they are simply evicted, because the Russians are ready to pay much more. This caused tension, comments had to be given to the Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan:
“We see a solution to the housing problem in a significant increase in the supply of rental apartments, and we do this with the help of developers and realtors who proactively find owners of unoccupied apartments and convince them to rent.”
With a Russian passport (and even with an internal passport), you can stay here for six months without a visa, after which you need to leave, enter back and live on.
Turkey
Rent rose sharply after the outbreak of war throughout Turkey. According to one of the largest sites, Sahibinden.com, the total number of listings for renting apartments throughout the country has decreased from more than 100,000 to 80,000 since the start of the war. Already by May, rent in Istanbul has grown by about three times, and about the same scale the rise in price occurred in Antalya. The mobilization led to a new rise in prices: renting a two-bedroom apartment in Alanya, a twenty-minute walk from the sea, cost 1,000 euros a month in September. After the announcement of the mobilization, similar housing can be found for only 1200-1400 euros per month. And if before the October hype, according to the law, Russians could quickly obtain a residence permit under an annual lease agreement, but now the queue for registration has stretched for months. But no one has repealed the law so far: renting real estate is enough to get a residence permit.
Emirates
Since October 3, the UAE authorities have increased the validity of tourist visas from 30 to 60 days. Now you can apply for a five-year multi-visa tourist, which will allow you to stay in the country for 180 days a year or 90 days in a row. The visa fee is 650 dirhams (about $170). An application for issuing a document can be submitted through the UAEICP application or on the embassy website.
The rental market in the UAE from March to September 2022 grew significantly: the share of new rental agreements in the total number of transactions was 60%, and only 40% of the agreements were for lease extensions. The cost of apartments in Dubai starts from $1000 per month, villas and townhouses – from $4000 per year. At the same time, prices have not changed, the country is already distinguished by a high level of real estate prices and is oversaturated with offers, just now renting an apartment in Dubai has become about the same as in Vilnius or Yerevan.
Georgia
Russians flew to Georgia, drove and even walked and rode bicycles. The country still allows you to come without a visa and, if you have a passport, spend 360 days in Georgia. Then you need to leave for a few days and come back again.
Rental prices in Tbilisi and Batumi have increased five times since March. This is explained by the fact that the first to move to Georgia were employees of IT companies and other well-paid specialists who work remotely. If before the war a two-room apartment could be rented for $200-250 per month, then after February 24, such options gradually rose in price to $900-1000 per month. And prices continue to rise. For $600, you can now only rent a room in an apart-hotel or a studio in a new house, where the neighbors are making repairs and it is always noisy.
Georgians do not rent real estate to Russians for several months, they prefer to sign a contract for at least a year and ask for an advance payment two or three months in advance.
Israel
Mostly repatriates went to Israel. Also, some took the opportunity to apply for refugee status directly in Israel. If you have a work or student visa, you can apply for a residence permit. The registration process will be more complicated and longer, but all this time you can legally live in the country, study or work.
Rental prices have risen 16.3% since March, the highest since 2010. In Hadera, rents averaged NIS 3,996 (about $1,200) in January-February 2022, compared to NIS 3,538 last year ($990). In Ramat Gan, the rent was NIS 6,688 ($1,871) compared to NIS 5,940 ($1,662) for the same periods.
In Netanya and Tel Aviv, the cost of renting a four-room apartment averages an astronomical amount of 9,633 shekels ($2,695), compared to 7,856 shekels ($2,198) in December 2021. In Jerusalem, a similar apartment can be found for 6-7 thousand shekels (about $1800).
Kazakhstan
In March alone, the rent for comfortable housing in Kazakhstan increased by 22.5%, the country's Bureau of National Statistics calculated. The number of purchase and sale transactions in the first month of spring also increased by a record 46% for the country. After the start of the mobilization, the excitement intensified. In just a week, 34,000 more Russians entered Kazakhstan than those who left.
For three weeks since the announcement of mobilization in all regions of Kazakhstan bordering with Russia, demand and housing prices have tripled. A similar situation has developed in the cities with which Russia has direct flights – Almaty, Astana, Aktau. Kazakhstan literally choked, there was not enough housing. The cost of the simplest one-room apartment in the border towns reached 100,000 tenge (approximately $210) – this is how much it cost to rent a one-room apartment in the capital of Kazakhstan until February. Super-cheap housing has especially risen in price in Almaty – on the outskirts of the city, without new repairs, with old appliances and furniture. In the first month of 2022, they cost an average of $320-325 per month, in March – $420-500, now – from $700.
Some Kazakhs are reluctant to rent out real estate to Russians, believing that most are looking for apartments for a couple of months, which means that soon they will have to look for tenants again. But there are those who, on the contrary, are happy to evict the previous local tenants and re-let the housing to the Russians at exorbitant prices. Both those and others are confident that the flow of migrants will subside, but prices will no longer fall to their previous levels.