Russian troops leave Kherson (according to Shoigu)
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, after the report of the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin , instructed the military to "start withdrawing troops across the Dnieper River." In fact, this is an order to leave Kherson, which was annexed by Russia at the end of September.
But the withdrawal of troops seems to have begun before the order was announced on the cameras. In the pro-Russian Telegram channel MilitaryMaps, information appeared that the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Kalininskoye, a village in the north of the Kherson region. Retreating, Russian troops blew up four bridges: in Daryevka, Snigirevka, Novokairy and the Tyaginsky railway bridge. Near the Darevsky bridge, there used to be a ferry crossing from pontoon sections. Now the bridge is completely destroyed, its quick restoration is impossible, analysts of the Conflict Intelligence Team say .
As Konstantin Mashovets, a military observer and coordinator of the Information Resistance group, explained to The Insider, the main goal of blowing up the bridges is to slow down the Ukrainian troops, but this will delay them for a short time. He also recalled that Russian troops sank ships in the Dnieper, on which Ukrainian troops could quickly cross the river and occupy bridgeheads (bridgeheads).
“They are trying to minimize the number of watercraft in the hope that they will have time to withdraw the bulk of their forces and assets from the right-bank group. In fact, this grouping is torn into two parts, because today the Darevsky bridge was blown up, through which there was a road between the northern and southern parts of the bridgehead. The Russian group is divided. They blow up the main bridges on Ingulets.”
Heavy fighting for the last two days took place in Snigirevka – 50 km from Kherson on the northern border of the Kherson region, the Ukrainians managed to first gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of the settlement, then, according to Ukrainian media, completely take it under control, as well as the village of Kalininskoe nearby. Also, a photo of a Ukrainian military man appeared on social networks, who was photographed against the background of a destroyed bridge in Kalininsky. At the same time, the head of the regional military administration, Vitaly Kim, a few hours before Shoigu's order to withdraw troops, announced that the fighting for Snigirevka was continuing.
Military expert Yan Matveev notes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in no hurry to immediately go to Kherson, gradually freeing the settlements nearby. He also published a video with the Ukrainian military, which, according to Matveev, was filmed in the village of Dudchany.
Advisor to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak noted that it is too early to talk about a Russian retreat. “We need to distinguish between words and deeds. Until the Ukrainian flag flies over Kherson, it is pointless to talk about the withdrawal of Russian troops. And Ukraine no longer takes into account the statements of Russia, ”Podolyak said in a comment to Reuters.
However, according to military expert Rob Lee, the withdrawal of Russian troops is hardly a trap.
I don't think it's a trap as some people suggest. Over the past few weeks, Russia has been taking steps, preparing to leave the area, and they risk scaring forward units that they will leave without announcing it. Ukraine has a military advantage right now while Russia is trying to train/equip mobilized soldiers and buy more weapons from Iran. Ukraine's continued success increases the likelihood that this war will end sooner."
On November 5, OSINT analyst Benjamin Pittet reported that the Russian command was preparing to withdraw troops from the left bank of the Dnieper and, accordingly, to leave Kherson. He analyzed satellite images and concluded that the Russian military had built three lines of trenches and bunkers on the right bank of the Dnieper. These defensive positions use natural and artificial barriers such as the Dnieper River and numerous canals in the Kherson region. Trenches are being built even on the Black Sea coast, writes Pittet.
Most of the positions along the right bank of the Dnieper are two rows of trenches and places for equipment. The most impressive defensive positions of the Russian military were equipped 18 kilometers from the Dnieper – they consist of three different defensive lines and a canal. Positions that Pittet saw on satellite images he plotted on a map. The expert notes that the positions are still being built, and the satellite images he has do not cover the entire territory, so there are gaps in the lines.
The North of Crimea will be in the affected area of HIMARS
As Rob Lee notes, after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper, a small part of Crimea in the north near the city of Armyansk will be within reach for GMLRS – 227 mm caliber rockets that are used in the HIMARS MLRS. A number of railway stations, ammunition depots and other logistics points will be within HIMARS range.
Military analyst Def Mon also published a map showing the territory that will be in the MLRS area with projectiles with a range of up to 70 km.
Preparations for the defense of the Crimea in the north seem to have begun as early as October. Shortly after Shoigu's order to withdraw troops, Benjamin Pittet reported that satellites had recorded renovations and the digging of new trenches in northern Crimea near Armyansk and Chongar, where the checkpoint between Ukraine and occupied Crimea was previously located. the pictures are dated 5 and 10 October.
Russia is losing people in the Ugledar direction
Fighting continues in the Ugledar direction near the village of Pavlovka. During the previous two days, Russian troops had attacked from the direction of the village of Nikolskoye, trying to break through to Ugledar and Pavlovka. As Konstantin Mashovets explains, the immediate task of the Russian military is to reach Ugledar and Konstantinovka, but they fail to do so.
“It's the same as trying to see your ears. They brought in another BTG in the direction of Prechistovka, brought in the battalion-tactical group of their 40th brigade, but this did not help them, because they could not even turn around in battle formations. They acted in the village of Pavlovka, attacked in the direction of Ugledar, and at the same time tried to break through southeast of the village of Novomikhailovka. This is a classic such element – two strikes in divergent directions in order to force the Ukrainian troops to move away from the Uludar ledge, but the Russians could not achieve any success, and Pavlovka even suffered losses and were forced to retreat.
They created two tactical strike groups – Ugledar and Novomikhailovsky. In the Novomikhailovsky direction, they managed to occupy two platoon strongholds and stopped there, because further advance was stopped by a massive fire defeat from the advanced Ukrainian units. Relatively speaking, Ugledar stands on the hills behind a small river. They tried to pass this Pavlovka quickly and got into a fire bag, got involved in one area, Ukrainian troops let them go deeper and covered them with fire from three sides, after which they suffered heavy losses and were forced to return to their original line. After two short counterattacks in the Pavlovka area, they also left the positions that they occupied on the left flank from this sector.
The day before, the head of the Primorsky Territory, Oleg Kozhemyako , issued a statement in which he denied significant losses of the Russian army in the area, in particular, the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation also issued a statement that the losses of the brigade in more than ten days do not exceed 1% of the combat strength.
The statements were preceded by the publication of a letter from the brigade fighters in the GRAY ZONE Telegram channel associated with the Wagner PMC. Among other things, it says that during the four days of the offensive, the 155th brigade lost 300 people killed, wounded and missing, and also lost 50% of its equipment. In the text, the Marines accuse Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, commander of the Eastern Military District and the Vostok group of troops in Ukraine, of failing to plan the operation and trying to hide the real numbers of losses, and demand to send a commission independent of the Ministry of Defense.
According to Russian propagandist Alexei Sukonkin, Russian losses in Pavlovka near Ugledar are significant. “Currently, three battalions are fighting in the village (or rather, what is left of them). According to reconnaissance, units of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating to Ugledar, in Pavlovka itself they are being replaced by units of the 25th air assault brigade of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who arrived to reinforce, it is estimated that up to 250 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now on the defensive on the northern outskirts of the settlement. Our losses… According to the direct participants, they are much more than those 1 and 7%, which were announced by the Ministry of Defense. I can say about the tanks, but if I keep silent for another day, then perhaps there will be nothing more to talk about. ”
Wagner PMCs are advancing on Bakhmut
Analysts of the Conflict Intelligence Team reported that mercenaries from the Wagner PMC were able to advance in the direction of Bakhmut, but they are still on the outskirts. According to a Def Mon analyst, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled attacks in the Bamut area, as well as in the Krasnogorovka, Ivangrad and Experienced areas.
See also The Insider's November 8 military roundup: Shoigu in Ukraine. Bakhmut, Ugledar – battles for the railway supply lines. Dead Marines who are "normal" .