Europe could get through the coming heating season much easier than authorities initially thought due to the abnormally warm temperatures the continent will face this winter. This is evidenced by the forecast of scientists of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, whose data are cited by Bloomberg.
Scientists predict that near the waters of the Baltic, Mediterranean and North Seas, temperatures will be recorded that are significantly higher than the average historical values. They also note that the probability of such an event has increased significantly in recent months and is currently estimated in the range of 50 to 60%. Warm weather during the heating season is highly likely in the UK, as well as the countries of Central and Southern Europe.
The agency notes that a warm winter will play into the hands of the European authorities, who will be able to reduce gas consumption and stabilize energy consumption on the continent. Analysts and politicians almost don’t talk about the gas shortage anymore, the vector of discussions smoothly turns into the consequences of the current winter to prepare for the 2023 heating season.
“With most weather models predicting relatively mild conditions through the end of 2022, gas is likely to be sufficient to meet demand even in the event of a cold start to 2023,” the agency quoted from an analytical report by Eurasia Group.
Warm weather is expected to help Europe's largest economies, Germany and France. Scientists predict a 40-50% decrease in precipitation that will fall in these countries in the coming months, which will increase electricity generation using hydroelectric power stations, as well as extend the season for river transport. However, there is a downside: the ski season will have to be postponed.
The Copernicu forecasting models use aggregated data from a variety of sources - the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the US. Data is received from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world. A warm winter in 2022 will not only be in Europe, but also on other continents: in North America and eastern Asia, temperatures are also expected to be above average, from which the USA, China and Japan can benefit in terms of energy.
Weather forecasts in recent months have played almost a key role in determining gas prices in the European market. During trading on Monday, November 14, gas prices were trading close to $1,000, during trading they rose to $1,105 per thousand cubic meters. In September, against the backdrop of fears of a gas shortage and a harsh winter, the price reached almost $3,600 per thousand cubic meters of gas. The Russian authorities have repeatedly frightened European countries with the harsh consequences of refusing Russian gas, but so far there has not been a severe crisis. At the same time, not all risks for Europe have gone away at the moment, the main difficulties with gas supply are now expected in 2023.