The President in the Czech Republic is formally a representative figure. According to the Constitution, he plays an important role only in moments of political crises, for example, early parliamentary elections, the sudden collapse of the ruling coalition and the resignation of the government - then the president can even form an interim cabinet of ministers himself. But in general, this is a classic president in a parliamentary republic, where the main power belongs to the government and the parliamentary majority that formed it. And until 2013, the procedure for electing the head of state fully corresponded to his real role - he was elected by members of parliament.
However, the Czech liberals and centrists, fearing a complete transfer of power into the hands of the Social Democrats, losing control of the parliament, managed to rewrite the legislation. They hoped that in direct elections their candidate Karl Schwarzenberg would not have serious competitors. And they miscalculated.
Czech liberals and centrists, fearing the loss of power, managed to rewrite the legislation
In 2013, like a jack-in-the-box, the future “Putin’s friend” Milos Zeman jumped onto the political stage and won the elections, becoming for several years the most popular politician in the Czech Republic with the highest personal legitimacy in the eyes of voters. He actively began to undermine the constitutional order and seize all new powers for the president, using any, even the smallest, ambiguities in the legislation on the division of powers with the government. Not surprisingly, Zeman's two terms in office have made the very institution of the presidency much more influential and attractive.
The game of "third extra"
In the first round of the current elections, the main topic was the Czech economy. The situation in it, compared with previous years, is very deplorable. Suffice it to say that inflation in December was 15.8% and is unlikely to be lower overall in 2022.
It is not surprising that, in addition to Babiš and Petr Pavel, the third favorite by the end of the election campaign was Danushe Nerudova, an economist and former rector of the University. Mendel in Brno. However, she could not get into the second round, despite the optimistic forecasts of sociologists who promised her almost 25% of the vote. Because of the corruption scandal around her work at the university that broke out just a week before the vote, she received only 14%.
Unlike Nerudova, ex-premier Babish, on the contrary, was very lucky: five days before the election, the court found him innocent in a long-standing case of corruption and the illegal use of European subsidies for small businesses. In the parliamentary elections two years earlier, Babis’s ANO (“Yes”) party lost power precisely because of accusations against the then prime minister of petty fraud with offshore companies and taxes when buying an estate on the Cote d'Azur in France.
Babish was very lucky: five days before the election, the court found him innocent in a corruption case
However, a successful court decision for Babis, judging by the results of the first round of elections, could have had negative consequences for him. The ex-premier still has the highest anti-rating among presidential candidates, and perhaps even among Czech politicians in general. Outraged by the controversial, in their opinion, decision of the court, all his ill-wishers in unison went to vote.
Prior to this, about 30% of voters could not decide who was closer to their hearts: General Pavel or the economist Nerudova. But then they decided not to reflect for a long time and massively voted for a slightly more "anti-Babishev" military man. As a result, Petr Pavel even managed to overtake the ex-premier a little in the first round, which no one predicted.
Babiš turns into Orban, and the Czech Republic into Hungary
Immediately after summing up the first preliminary results of the elections, the ex-premier launched a pre-prepared aggressive offensive against Pyotr Pavel. The strategy was clearly prepared long ago: new billboards appeared on the streets the morning after the elections. "I'm a diplomat, not a soldier!" Andrey Babish literally shouts from them, urging "not to let the Czech Republic be drawn into the war." It is clear what kind of war we are talking about: this is a war in Ukraine. Who is the “dangerous soldier” here is also obvious, this is General Petr Pavel, who led not only the Czech General Staff, but also held a similar position in NATO.
Babiš has been growing closer in recent years to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, sometimes described as the last dictator within the EU and accused of turning Hungary into a "mafia state." Exactly on the very false threat of being drawn directly into the war against Russia, the Hungarian prime minister managed to win the parliamentary elections in 2022, despite the unprecedented growth of cooperation from the local opposition.
Babiš is becoming closer friends with the Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who is called the last dictator in the EU.
Taking advantage of the fact that his competitor is a military man, Babiš and his political consultants clearly want to use the same technique. In addition, this move gives hope for the transfer of votes to him from the candidate of local nationalists - a real one, unlike Babish, a former diplomat, a former liberal dissident Yaroslav Bashta, who dropped out after the first round, but won almost 4.5% of the vote. He just proposed separate negotiations on gas with Vladimir Putin, and the cessation of military assistance to Ukraine, and at the same time the resignation of the current Czech government, so unloved by the ex-premier (which, by the way, the president cannot do under the Constitution).
Shaky forecasts
According to the results of two days after the first round, General Petr Pavel is still considered the favorite in the second, despite the aggressive campaign of Andrey Babis. The Czechs have already placed bets in bookmakers for about 300 million crowns (about 12 million euros), and bets on the victory of Petr Pavel are accepted on average at 1.12:1, and on the ex-premier - 6:1.
A simple addition of the votes of the first round gives the same result. At least two candidates, including Danusha Nerudova, have already supported the general, and if the turnout had remained the same, and all their voters had voted for Pyotr Pavel on January 27-28, he would have received 55-56% of the vote. Babisha's result does not reach, if using the same method, and 40%. In addition, some of Babis' party comrades, such as the head of the Moravian-Silesian region, have already announced that they will support his opponent.
However, the overall turnout in the first round did not exceed 70%. In the second, it can be more if you warm up the audience correctly. Many liberals, on the contrary, may not come to the ballot boxes, because for them Peter Pavel is not democratic enough either - he was a member of the Communist Party and served in that communist army. Andrey Babish's team is clearly counting on this.
Babiš's accession to the presidency will not allow new criminal cases to be brought against him. And by the next parliamentary elections, by constantly criticizing the incumbent government and putting a spoke in its wheels wherever possible, as Milos Zeman did, Babis can hope to lead his party to victory and monopolize power. Just like Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary. And then it is likely that, like Orban and many other corrupt and authoritarian rulers, Babiš will turn his eyes to Russia as a potential partner and ally.
Ivan Preobrazhensky is a PhD in Political Science, a commentator for Deutsche Welle and an expert on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe