Experts from the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences indicate that the growth potential of the Russian economy in the long term until 2035 will be no more than 1% per year. Their study, quoted by Vedomosti, indicates that the factors that previously contributed to higher growth rates have been exhausted.
Experts write that in the period from 1999 to 2008, the rapid development of the country's economy was associated with an increase in investment in the face of rising export earnings. After the 2008 crisis, growth fell sharply due to the stagnation of foreign economic income and the depreciation of the ruble, which made it impossible to stimulate demand in the domestic market. At the same time, the geopolitical situation accelerated the slowdown in economic dynamics, but did not become the main reason for this in the medium and long term.
The study considers three options for a strategy to stimulate the economy through fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies. The first involves an increase in budget spending by 1 trillion rubles, the second is the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar by 10 rubles, the third is the easing of monetary policy and setting the key rate at 3%. However, all these options, according to experts, will not lead to a significant increase in growth rates.
Experts believe that instead of traditional measures to stimulate the economy, one should rely on the domestic market. They offer investments in agriculture, automotive and housing construction. As a result, this may lead to a reversal of the trend of low economic growth over the next 15 years.
According to Rosstat, in 2022 the Russian economy contracted by 2.1%, while in 2021 the post-pandemic year it grew by 5.6%.
The April report of the National Research University Higher School of Economics notes that in the face of sanctions pressure and restrictions on exports and imports, Russia should not close its economy and return to the planned economic system used in the USSR. Experts also emphasize that artificial restriction of imports can lead to higher prices and social tensions, and suggest focusing on innovative development.