In today's summary:
- Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin announce the complete capture of Bakhmut;
- Ukrainian officials insist that the battle for the city continues;
- Z-"military correspondents" call the fall of Bakhmut – the regional center in the Donetsk region – "a feat of Russian weapons";
- With the capture of Bakhmut, the winter-spring campaign of the offensive of the Russian troops was obviously completed;
- The Ukrainian DRG entered the Belgorod region, where 10 billion rubles were spent to strengthen the border;
- Near the battlefields in the Belgorod region is a storage of tactical nuclear weapons;
- The US announced a new $375 million military aid package for Ukraine;
- Ukrainian pilots have begun the process of training on Western F-16 fighters.
The situation at the front
On May 20, one of the founders and chief public representative of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced the final capture of the Bakhmut settlement . The entire operation, according to his calculations, took 224 days (from October 8, 2022). Prigozhin thanked Generals Sergei Surovikin (Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Deputy Commander of the Russian group in Ukraine) and Mikhail Mizintsev (former Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics), as well as President Putin, and said that he fought not only with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also with "paramilitary bureaucrats" represented by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine Valery Gerasimov.
Among other things, Prigozhin said that, according to the “method of operational-tactical calculations” approved by the Ministry of Defense, based on the number of enemy PMC “Wagner” “should have been 23 times more in number, weapons should have been 27 times more in number, and We were given 11.5% shells.”
On the night of May 21, Russian state news agencies distributed congratulations from President Vladimir Putin in connection with the "completion of the operation to liberate Artemovsk < Bakhmut – The Insider>." A separate message later appeared on the Kremlin's official website, dated 1:00 a.m. on May 21.
In the morning, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in an official summary reported :
As a result of the offensive operations of the Wagner assault detachments, with the support of artillery and aviation of the Southern Group of Forces, the liberation of the city of Artemovsk <Bakhmut> was completed in the Artemovsk "Bakhmut" tactical direction.
Prigozhin released a separate commentary on the statement of the Ministry of Defense, noting that during the seven months of the assault on Bakhmut, strategic aviation indeed “several times” helped with long-range missile strikes, in addition, the 305th artillery brigade was transferred to the Wagnerites, and on one of the flanks was 57th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. According to Prigozhin, information about the participation of the Airborne Forces in the capture of Bakhmut is “complete nonsense.” He also criticized the 55th “Tuva” brigade (we are talking about the 55th separate motorized rifle mountain brigade), which allegedly “generously endows” with awards and titles.
Reports of the formal capture of Bakhmut caused incredible euphoria in the pro-Russian media field.
VGTRK “voenkor” Alexander Sladkov wrote a column for the RT Telegram channel in which (as far as one can judge, quite seriously) called the capture of the city a “triumph”, “a triumph of the Soviet strategy, successfully developed in a completely free, active manner, without conservative military blinkers” and at the same time "a rude, forceful "lowering" of NATO's combat strategy and tactics imposed on Ukrainians by Western masters", and at the same time "proof that the Russian fighting spirit is stronger than the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian and Western (mercenaries)".
In addition, Sladkov is afraid that the "triumph" in Bakhmut will "sink into oblivion", therefore he suggests (the spelling and punctuation of the original are preserved):
- record detailed interviews of the commanders and fighters of the PMC "Wagner" and the participating military from the Ministry of Defense on the topic "How it was in reality";
- to land a working group of military (civilian) historians in Bakhmut to create a historical formulary "Storm of Bakhmut ";
- loudly (and not in a closet) reward the heroes of the assault, call them the names of the streets in their homeland;
- control the competent and objective filling (as it should be) of the forms of combat operations;
- collect everything that is of value for creating a museum for the liberation of Bakhmut (trophies, work cards for commanders, etc., etc.);
- to urgently land a landing force of photographers and cameramen in Bakhmut , who during the week, slowly, setting up the light and equipment, will capture everything that the accompanying fighters will show them.
Another "military officer" of the VGTRK, Yevgeny Poddubny, posted a post on the Telegram channel about "Victory" in the "battle for Bakhmut ":
The battle for Bakhmut ended with our Victory. A low bow to all the guys from the Wagners. Thank you for this win. The kingdom of heaven to the fallen heroes.
Close to PMC Wagner "commander" Alexander Simonov writes about the "feat of Russian weapons, which should be included in military history textbooks":
This is a real feat of Russian weapons, which should be included in the textbooks on the military history of our state.
The guys went on the assaults in their usual prudent, but energetic and assertive manner and outplayed the enemy in a fair short fight.
The famous Z-poetess Anna Dolgareva went the furthest, writing poems with the line “all Wagners go to heaven.”
Inspiring texts are complemented by visual works that play up the slogans “ Bakhmut is ours” and glorify the Wagner PMC.
Wagner PMC mercenaries who participated in the capture of the city received the Bakhmut Meat Grinder medal. On its obverse, this phrase is written in large letters. It is also repeated on the reverse of the medal as the name of the entire operation. Also distinguished "Wagnerians" receive gold coins. It is noted that these awards are internal, since recently mercenaries have not been presented to the state.
In Ukraine, the loss of Bakhmut has not yet been confirmed. On the contrary, Alexander Syrsky, commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, speaks of pressure on the flanks and approaching the "tactical encirclement" of the city. For our part, we note that so far this is very far away – however, this may mean the occupation of the dominant heights around the city, which Prigogine spoke about not so long ago.
President Zelensky, when asked by a journalist about whether Bakhmut remains in Ukrainian hands because the Russians say they have captured him, said “I think not.” Reuters interpreted his words as an acknowledgment of the UAF's loss of control over the city. However, Zelensky’s press service assured Financial Times journalist Christopher Miller, who asked the question, that the president’s words mean exactly the opposite and are a response to the second part of it with the assertion that the Russians took Bakhmut .
On the map of the Ukrainian resource Deep State, which is compiled on the basis of geolocation of materials from open sources, as of the evening of May 22, several buildings and even the place where the famous monument to the MiG-17 aircraft was located are still designated as disputed territories. At the same time, the map may not fully correspond to the current situation, and actual confirmation of the presence of Ukrainian forces in the area has not appeared.
The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating in the Bakhmut area, reports progress in a section 700 meters deep and 1,730 meters wide in the area of responsibility of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the RF Armed Forces. Brigade officer and one of the founders of the Azov Regiment, Andrei Biletsky, publishes footage of captured servicemen, reportedly from the Storm Z detachment ( formations of the Russian Ministry of Defense, recruited from Russian prisoners), attached to the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.
Even if Bakhmut has completely passed under the control of Russian forces, then in the light of Prigozhin’s statement about the withdrawal of Wagner PMC units to the rear for rest and retraining from May 25, the question arises of further actions of the Russian command in this direction.
If you believe the words of Yevgeny Prigozhin, from June 1, not a single Wagner PMC mercenary will remain on the line of contact, all of them will depart for re-formation, re-equipment and additional training, scheduled for a period of two months. According to the assessment of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley, as of March 2023, the number of personnel "Wagnerites" storming Bakhmut was 6 thousand people, another 20-30 thousand were recruits.
Even taking into account losses, this means that in the Bakhmut direction, the Russian command will lose at least several brigades that need to be quickly replaced.
It is still unclear how exactly the Wagner PMC will prepare defensive lines in Bakhmut and organize the process of transferring the city under the control of regular units of the RF Armed Forces. ISW analysts believe that it will not work without losses. They remind that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can still carry out effective artillery shelling of the destroyed city. In such an environment, it is extremely difficult to rotate personnel, given, moreover, the poor coordination of the actions of mercenaries and units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
It should be noted that Prigozhin did not miss the opportunity in a mocking manner to congratulate Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on his birthday. In the text, Shoigu is referred to as "President of the Russian Geographical Society, Knight of the Order of Malta" and characterizes him as a person who combines "the abilities of a sophisticated aesthete, graphic artist, woodcarver, hunter, hockey lover, caring father and father-in-law." Not a word was said about the military talents of the minister in the congratulations.
In an environment close to one of the field commanders of the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass in 2014, Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov / Runov), the capture of Bakhmut is assessed at best as a tactical victory, and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s transition to the ranks is postulated as the most noticeable result of the months-long operation. major political figures.
Girkin himself considers the assault on Bakhmut in the context of the general winter-spring campaign of the Russian command and comes to the conclusion that it ended in a "strategic failure":
In general, the operation ended with a strategic failure of our troops. The enemy has NOT been ousted from the Donbass in all the main directions, in most directions – not moved at all.
During the offensive, the RF Armed Forces used up a lot of trained manpower, exhausted almost to the bottom the stocks of weapons, equipment and ammunition necessary for further offensive operations.
According to Girkin, now we should expect a "retaliatory move" from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since now is a particularly good time for the Ukrainian offensive – the best strike units of the Russian Armed Forces are exhausted by months of fighting, and the supply of ammunition is minimal.
An open data researcher under the nickname Def Mon also summarizes the results of the winter-spring campaign of Russian troops.
Judging by the data of Def Mon, the advance of the RF Armed Forces (highlighted in red on the map) in almost all sections of the contact line turned out to be extremely insignificant.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
Over the past few days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have expanded the geography of strikes with long-range Storm Shadow air-launched missiles to Berdyansk and Mariupol . In both cities, “arrivals” were recorded at airfields. The Rybar Telegram channel, affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, believes that the main objective of the missile strike campaign is to reduce the combat capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces. At the same time, analyst Oliver Alexander, studying the strike on Mariupol , comes to the conclusion that it was struck at an underground bunker, where the headquarters of one of the groups could be located, which Sergei Shoigu visited shortly before the strike.
It is reported about the attack on the airfield near the village of Mospino in the Donetsk region . Presumably, the ammunition depot was hit . Earlier, the Pantsir S-1 air defense missile system, which was covering the airfield, was destroyed there.
Representatives of the occupying authorities of the Zaporozhye region reported two explosions near the city of Tokmak . Russian media wrote that the city was de-energized.
The command of the Ukrainian Air Force reports the destruction on the night of May 22 of 20 kamikaze drones and four cruise missiles during a Russian strike on the military and civilian infrastructure of the city of Dnipro . In total, four X-101 / X-555 cruise missiles, five X-22 cruise missiles, two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, five S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 20 Iranian drones of the Shahed family (they are " Geranium"). Apparently, none of the ballistic missiles or Kh-22 missiles were shot down, which means that these munitions continue to pose a problem for Ukrainian air defense, which has only a limited number of modern Western systems suitable for combating them.
As a result of the attack on the Dnieper, “arrivals” were recorded, according to the Telegram channel of the head of the Dnepropetrovsk regional military administration, Sergei Lysak. Several buildings of the rescue service were damaged, trucks and cars, special equipment were destroyed. A 27-year-old man was injured and was taken to the hospital.
The border areas of the Belgorod region have been under artillery fire for several days. Today, geolocated videos appeared showing the shelling of the Grayvoron border checkpoint and the movement of an unknown tank in its direction.
Further events began to develop rapidly. If closer to noon, the governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, only spoke about the shelling and "information attacks", then a little later he recognized the breakthrough of the border of the "Ukrainian DRG".
Prior to this, posts with photos and videos appeared on the Telegram channel of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), a military formation formed from Russian citizens and fighting on the side of Ukraine, against the background of road signs of Russian settlements, as well as footage of the movement of military equipment.
The representative of the military intelligence of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov, said that the RDK, together with the Legion of Freedom of Russia (another unit formed from Russians fighting for Ukraine), is conducting an operation in the Belgorod region to “liberate territories from the so-called Putin regime and move the enemy away in order to create a zone security for the protection of the civilian population of Ukraine”.
The Rybar Telegram channel, affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense , wrote about two tanks, one armored personnel carrier and nine armored combat vehicles entering the Belgorod region from the Graivoron border crossing . The authors of the channel reported that the group was able to advance to the Kozinka-Glotovo intersection, after which the walking group reached the Glotovo House of Culture.
Sirens sounded in the region's settlements, and a message was broadcast on the radio, according to which citizens needed to "putty the windows to increase the tightness of the premises" and lock themselves in their homes. The pro-Kremlin Telegram channel SHOT reported a “partial evacuation” of the village of Kozinka in the Belgorod region.
In the late afternoon, it was reported that the deputy head of the administration of the city of Grayvoron was wounded, which he received during the shelling of the administration building, as well as the wounding of two employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Subsequently, it became known about 8 wounded in the whole region.
Near the battlefield, Russian Mi-8 and Mi-28 helicopters were seen flying low and firing off heat traps, presumably to avoid a repeat of the incident in the Bryansk region , where two Russian helicopters and two aircraft were shot down on the same day. Later, a Mi-26 heavy transport helicopter and Ka-52 attack helicopters were noted in the sky. It was also reported that armored vehicles were moving towards the border.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the region has put into effect the "Edelweiss" plan, which involves the general gathering of all law enforcement officers of the region. It is worth recalling that Russian propagandists discussed the name of the 10th separate mountain assault brigade "Edelweiss" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time, recalling the Wehrmacht division with the same name that allegedly existed during the Second World War.
One of the "military" channels wrote that the saboteurs acted as part of an infantry battalion (which is at least strange, given that there were only a dozen armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers in the column, and the battalion usually consists of 200 people) with the support of a tank platoon, as well as a receiver and rocket artillery. The Russian Z-channel Helicopterpilot, close to the Russian army aviation, reported that "work" was being carried out in the Belgorod region , but "there will be no comments yet, the Afghan is still the same."
The Russian channel “Military Informant” is trying to analyze what happened, pointing out that after artillery shelling, the tank made a hole in the wall of one of the buildings of the checkpoint, after which the saboteurs occupied the border post and eventually went 8 km deep into the territory of Russia, while not encountering resistance:
In the bottom line, it was successfully pissed off: 1) the concentration of the enemy’s armored group in the border area, 2) his advance in a column along the road in the middle of broad daylight, 3) a breakthrough through the border point, 4) a further breakthrough in depth.
RT talked about the "trap" into which the Russian military lured saboteurs. Their plan was supposedly to let the DRG pass to Grayvoron , and already there to eliminate them. “There are no hostages, no evacuation has been announced, the locals themselves decide to leave. The operation is under control, ”an anonymous source of propagandists reported. However, in the late afternoon, buses were reported taking civilians out of the Grayvoron region .
Как напоминает связанный с ЧВК Вагнера канал GREY ZONE, на укрепление российской границы было потрачено около 10 млрд рублей, эти укрепления гордо называли термином из учебников истории «засечная черта». Авторы канала иронизируют:
Но кто ж мог знать, что они прям через КПП поедут. Я думаю, что они даже на него звонили и бронировали время перехода границы, чтобы всё по правилам и никаких нарушений красных линий.
По состоянию на 18:00 мск бои на территории РФ продолжались. «Рыбарь» отмечал , что диверсанты смогли закрепиться под Козинкой и остаются на подступах к Грайворону . По данным канала, ведутся обстрелы всего приграничья Белгородской области , в том числе военного объекта, известного под названием «Белгород-22». «О скоплении живой силы ВСУ по ту сторону границы было известно давно — но выводы никто не сделал», — пишет «Рыбарь».
Неподалеку от Грайворона находится «Объект 1150» (он же «Белгород-22») на территории в/ч 25624, относящийся к ведению 12-го Главного управления Минобороны РФ, ответственного в том числе за хранение тактических ядерных боеприпасов. «Рыбарь» утверждает , что ядерного оружия там давно нет, однако представитель украинской военной разведки Андрей Юсов заявляет , что россияне в срочном порядке вывозят ядерные заряды.
Советник главы Офиса президента Украины Михаил Подоляк написал в Twitter-аккаунте, что все происходящее является деятельностью российских партизан, противостоящих тоталитарному путинскому режиму. «Как известно, танки можно купить в любом военторге, а партизанские группы состоят исключительно из граждан России», — подчеркнул Подоляк. В 2014 году Владимир Путин называл военных РФ, захвативших Крым, «местными силами самообороны», а военную форму, по его мнению, эти люди могли купить «в магазине».
Losses
Президент США Джо Байден заявил на саммите «Большой семерки» в Японии, что потери российских сил в ходе операции по захвату Бахмута составили 100 000 человек (очевидно, убитыми и ранеными). Здесь стоит отметить, что ранее спикер Совета национальной безопасности США Джон Кирби называл общую цифру в 100 000 убитых и раненых россиян с начала года, половина из которых приходятся на Бахмут . Возможно, Байден также неверно интерпретировал эту оценку, как и некоторые СМИ. Интересно, что даже украинская оценка в 70 000 российских потерь убитыми и ранеными в боях за Бахмут , которую на днях озвучил министр обороны Алексей Резников, ниже названной Байденом.
Оценить, насколько заявленные потери соответствуют действительности, можно при помощи широко разошедшегося по соцсетям видео с обращением родственников мобилизованных из Хакасии, Алтайского края и Кузбасса к президенту Путину. Из него следует, что из 501 человека, отправленных на выполнение боевого задания, вернулось только 130. Кроме того, если верить словам близких мобилизованных, их «выкупила» 60-я ОДШБр «Ветераны» по 25 тысяч рублей «за голову». Ранее появлялась информация о присутствии «Ветеранов» на бахмутском направлении , например от бывшего чиновника «ДНР» Даниила Безсонова .
Телеканал Fox News со ссылкой на неназванных официальных лиц в администрации США сообщает об общих потерях Украины и России. Согласно этим данным, украинская сторона потеряла 20 тысяч убитыми и 130 тысяч ранеными, а российская — 50 тысяч убитыми и 180 тысяч ранеными. При этом также говорится о примерно 42 тысячах погибших гражданских лицах.
Обращает на себя внимание разительное отличие в соотношении погибших и раненых: 1:6,5 для ВСУ против 1:3,6 для российских сил (для сравнения, то же соотношение для Красной армии в Берлинской операции составляло 1:3,5, а для США в ходе войны в Афганистане — 1:8,5 ). Такую разницу можно объяснить плачевным состоянием российской тактической медицины, на чем мы подробнее останавливались в разделе «Потери» в нашей предыдущей сводке .
Ряд украинских источников сообщил о том, что над Черным морем сбит истребитель Су-35. Связанный с ВКС РФ Telegram-канал Fighterbomber намекает , что к инциденту причастна ЗРС С-300, размещенная к югу от Одессы. По словам администратора канала, координаты местонахождения комплекса прислали ему «подписчики с Украины» за два дня до сбития российского самолета, после чего они были направлены «куда надо». Он размышляет о том, что лучше было бы просто выложить их в канал, поскольку в Минобороны информация проходит множество «цепочек, рапортов по команде, объяснительных и росписей в журналах». В результате украинский комплекс ПВО «уехал целый и невредимый за госнаградами».
Armaments and military equipment
Постепенно проясняется вопрос с количеством, сроками и прочими условиями передачи Украине истребителей F-16. По словам представителя Воздушных сил ВСУ Юрия Игната, на начальном этапе западные союзники передадут от 12 до 18 истребителей.
Глава европейской дипломатии Жозеп Боррель сообщил , что полетная подготовка украинских пилотов на истребителях F-16 уже началась. Он приветствовал решение о передаче истребителей Украине и добавил, что ВСУ в них очень нуждаются. При этом от представителей европейских стран, заявивших о поддержке «истребительной коалиции» не поступали подтверждения о начале тренировок.
Италия тайно передала Украине партию «автомобилей-истребителей танков» B1 Centauro, вооруженных орудием Oto Melara калибра 105 мм/52. Об этом сообщил итальянский военный аналитик, который подписывается в Twitter как «A-129 Mangusta». Он заметил эти боевые машины на железнодорожном вокзале города Казерта вместе с бронемашинами Iveco LMV устаревшей модификации, которые ранее уже поставлялись в Украину и не используются итальянской армией. По своим тактико-техническим характеристикам B1 Centauro напоминает французскую колесно-пушечную разведывательно-огневую машину AMX-10RC (те и другие часто не совсем верно называют «колесными танками»), которые уже были поставлены в Украину, однако выгодно отличается от последней стабилизацией орудия, что позволяет вести огонь на ходу, а также системой управления огнем, которая также устанавливается, например, на итальянские танки C1 Ariete.
США объявили о предоставлении Украине нового пакета военной помощи на сумму $375 млн. Она будет выделена в рамках административных полномочий президента из имущества, имеющегося в наличии у американского Министерства обороны. В него вошли ракеты GMLRS для HIMARS, 155-мм и 105-мм артиллерийские выстрелы, ракеты с лазерной системой наведения, противотанковые ракетные комплексы Javelin и гранатометы AT4, танковые мостоукладчики, медицинские бронемашины, тягачи и трейлеры для транспортировки тяжелой техники, автотранспорт, боеприпасы для взрывных работ, тепловизоры, а также запчасти и другое полевое имущество.
О главных событиях войны 19 мая — в предыдущей сводке: «Защитники Бахмута «выполнили свои военные задачи», ВСУ получат истребители F-16. What is happening on the front line.
