From the moment of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine until May 27, 2023, before the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, 47 thousand Russian soldiers were killed – this is three times more than the losses of the USSR during the war in Afghanistan (1979-1989), and nine times more losses federal troops during the first Chechen campaign (1994-1996). This is stated in the study of Meduza and Mediazone.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced losses more than seven months ago, according to the department, 5937 Russian servicemen were killed. However, this is not accurate data, since earlier journalists have already established more dead, based only on data from open sources and counting the fresh graves of military personnel in cemeteries.
When calculating the data in the new study, journalists used the Register of Inheritance Cases (RND) – a database that contains information about inheritance cases opened by citizens of the Russian Federation for their deceased relatives, and Rosstat data on mortality for 2022, which they received at the official request researcher of electoral statistics and excess mortality, employee of the University of Tübingen (Germany) Dmitry Kobak.
In order to find out what proportion of the killed military personnel falls into the RND, the journalists used the already existing list of the dead, which is maintained by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service. The study also used the concept of “excess mortality”, which was previously calculated to assess the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, only in this study “excess male mortality” was given – its journalists isolated it from the general data. In addition, from the RND data, it was revealed how many deaths are behind one inheritance case – the relatives of what percentage of people apply for his inheritance.
With a probability of 95%, the death toll lies between 40,000 and 55,000, the text notes. According to one method of calculation, in 2022, the excess "military" deaths amounted to 24 thousand people, according to another – 25 thousand. If we take into account the seriously wounded, dismissed from service, this figure can be at least 125 thousand people. Missing persons are partly included in these data, but they do not take into account captured Russian servicemen, as well as citizens of Ukraine who fought and died as part of the "DPR" and "LPR".
Separately, the study describes the method of working with the Register of inheritance cases. Without opening a case in it, Russians cannot register inherited property if it is subject to state registration. Such cases are opened when the heirs want to re-register the apartment or car of a deceased relative. At the disposal of the publications was a sample of RND with records of inheritance cases opened from 2014 to May 2023, there is data on 11 million deaths. Among the information about them is the full name, date of birth, date of death, date of the act of death, date of the inheritance case, name of the notary (who opened the case), information about the registry office that registered the death, and some other information.
As a result, journalists used the Register of Probate Cases and the list of names of the dead found by volunteers to estimate what proportion of all the dead becomes “visible” to the volunteers. Then it becomes possible to estimate the true number of deaths. A similar analysis of "excess mortality" scientists use to assess the damage of epidemics and natural disasters. It was the excess deaths during the coronavirus epidemic that showed the real death toll.
Separately, the study notes that "excess male mortality" is interpreted as the result of Russia's losses on the battlefield, but some small part of this mortality may be associated with indirect causes. For example, the rise in violent crime and suicide. However, such growth is not observed in the official statistics of Rosstat.
Journalists calculated the total weekly number of inheritance cases in the RND for different age and sex groups. Then we calculated the excess male inheritance cases – the number of real cases minus the number of expected ones.
After that, they converted the number of excess inheritance cases into the number of deaths using special coefficients. Data on how many deaths in a given age and sex cohort are on average behind one hereditary case was obtained on the basis of a search in the RND of the earliest dead of a certain age whose names are known. Only 60% (58.1 ± 5.6%) of those who died at the beginning of the war at the age of 20–24 were prosecuted within the prescribed six months. Based on this, the researchers assumed that for other military personnel of the same age, the proportion will continue in the future.
The journalists then took into account the "contribution to overall mortality" of prisoners, who, on average, have less property. According to the study, probate cases are initiated about three times less often for prisoners than for regular military personnel. In different weeks, in different age cohorts, the proportions of prisoners, mobilized, volunteers and other groups of belligerents differed. These changes were taken into account with the help of additional coefficients. The proportions of the groups were obtained from the database found earlier on the social networks of the dead. Journalists borrowed the method of accounting for differences in the probability of getting into the RND from health workers who developed a case-control study. As a result, the number of deaths in different age cohorts was counted separately, and then added up. So the journalists gave a brief description of the calculation method, more details can be found in the appendix at the end of the study .
So, as an example, one age group from the study is considered – people aged 20–24 years. The study states that in the pre-war period (2014–2021) in this group, a total of 11 ± 4 inheritance cases per week were opened in Russia for women and 32.8 ± 9.4 cases for men. In the first weeks of the war, the number of inheritance cases increased dramatically. From February 28 to March 6, 117 men died in this group, who were subsequently prosecuted – almost four times more than before. There were only 16 cases for women in this sample in the same week.
Given long-term data, seasonal fluctuations and the number of cases for women who died this week, in peacetime there would be about 33.8 male inheritance cases – that is, in this one week, there are more than 80 excess inheritance cases for young men of suitable age. After the death of the military of this age, inheritance cases are eventually opened in about 60% of cases. Therefore, the number of excess cases should be multiplied by a factor of 1.73 – thus, there will be an excess death of 155 people in a given week alone. Since we are talking about the beginning of the war, an amendment to take into account the proportion of prisoners is not needed, since they were not yet part of the Russian troops.
A sharp increase in the number of inheritance cases is observed among young people, the usual background mortality for such a group is extremely low. However, the increase in mortality is also noticeable in other age groups from 15 to 49 years. By the end of 2022, journalists have established about 25 thousand excess deaths men. By May 27, 2023, the total death toll was approximately 47 thousand people. (with a probability of 95% – from 40 to 55 thousand people).
