In today's summary:
- The APU is advancing on the flanks of the Russian group storming Bakhmut;
- According to some reports, units of the Russian regular army in the Bakhmut region are experiencing an acute shortage of weapons;
- Z-"military correspondents" report on the advance of Ukrainian troops on the islands in the Dnieper delta and in the Vuglodar direction;
- Britain hands over "nearly indestructible" Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of 250 km to Ukraine;
- Zelensky calls for patience with the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- Russia is questioning whether a Kinzhal missile was shot down near Kyiv;
- The Americans accuse South Africa of supplying Russia with ammunition;
- In service with the Russian army, a new unusual "tankenstein" was noticed - the "naval" MT-LB.
The situation at the front
Associated with PMC Wagner "commander" Oleksandr Simonov writes about the advance of Ukrainian troops north and south of Bakhmut . According to him, units of the 9th motorized rifle regiment of the RF Armed Forces withdrew to a depth of 600 meters, which unblocked the Chasov Yar-Bakhmut road for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the units of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade left the territory south-west of Ivanovsky with an area of up to 3.5 square meters. km and positions north-west of Kleshcheevka (together with fighters of the 374th separate motorized rifle battalion).
According to Simonov, the Wagnerites are on the offensive in the city. In addition, they allegedly promptly reoccupied a stronghold west of Kleshcheevka , previously abandoned by the Russian military.
Recall, on the eve it was reported about the successful counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the southern flank of the storming Bakhmut grouping with the advancement of the Ukrainian 3rd Special Forces Brigade to a depth of 2.6 km.
The founder of PMC Wagner Evgeny Prigozhin said today that the situation on the flanks is developing according to the worst of the predicted scenarios:
“Those territories that were taken with the blood and lives of our comrades-in-arms for many months, passing tens or hundreds of meters every day, today, almost without a fight, are thrown by those who should hold our flanks.”
Voenkor VGTRK Yevgeny Poddubny said that the de facto Ukrainian counteroffensive had already begun and confirmed that Russian forces were retreating from the flanks. According to him, Kyiv began the implementation of the operation to encircle the Russians in the Bakhmut direction.
He also said that in the Soledar area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, several units, with the support of armored groups, each of which had 2-3 tanks, were able to organize a breakthrough and are now trying to gain a foothold in their positions.
The Telegram channel "Military Informant" publishes a map of the alleged operational plan of the Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut direction.
According to The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the success of the (so far) limited UAF counterattacks in the Bakhmut area is explained by the exhaustion and general decrease in the combat effectiveness of the Russian forces involved in the operation. The ISW also notes that the Russian command randomly sends various previously battered units near Bakhmut , citing the example of the 72nd brigade, which suffered losses and retreated on the southern flank, and before that suffered setbacks near Kherson and Ugledar .
Another example is the 9th motorized rifle regiment mentioned above. This unit was constantly stationed in the Kaliningrad region as part of the 11th Army Corps of the Baltic Fleet Coastal Forces. According to documents obtained by Reuters journalists, in the summer of 2022, the regiment was part of the Balakliya group of troops, which, presumably, was defeated along with the 11th Army Corps during the September Ukrainian counteroffensive. Later, the regiment held the defense in the Svatovo area - prisoners from this unit spoke about the difficult situation with supplies, communications and command. On the feedback page of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of the Kaliningrad Region, you can find a comment about the situation in the regiment from November 2022:
“There is a complete mess going on there, the equipment is all broken, there are no walkie-talkies, no uniforms, the dugouts inside need to be equipped at their own expense, there is not enough fuel and lubricants [fuel and lubricants], and the commanders do not hesitate to offer to buy everything themselves, although they themselves live in normal conditions.”
Pro-Russian public figure German Sadulayev writes on his Telegram channel that the Russian units in the Bakhmut region are experiencing an acute shortage of anti-tank weapons:
“I was told how ours now lost the opornik. 2 tanks and BMP-2 APU entered. And ours did not have any anti-tank weapons. On the front line, at zero, in the forward female defensive midfielder, they did not have anti-tank weapons. There was no ATGM. MANPADS. RPG!! There were probably only automatics. You can’t win much with machine guns against tanks.”
The WarGonzo project of the “military correspondent” Semyon Pegov reports on the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Bolshoy Potemkin Island in the Dnieper , as well as on the breakthrough of Ukrainian troops in the Vuglodar direction from the Golden Niva .
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with the BBC, said that Kiev needs more time and Western weapons to launch a counteroffensive. He noted that the units of the Ukrainian army, trained with the NATO military, are fully prepared, but the command is waiting for some more receipts, in particular, armored vehicles, which arrive in batches. An offensive with what is already there is possible, but will lead to great human losses, the president stressed.
According to Zelensky, the success of the counteroffensive is important for Ukraine, among other things, in order to show the West how effective the assistance is. If there are no results, then funding and arms supplies may be reduced.
Well-known military experts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee released an overview of the prospects for the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the further course of the war. They note that Ukraine may well succeed, but do not expect the end of the war at this stage. Analysts note that the West needs to increase support for Ukraine after the counter-offensive, regardless of its results, because otherwise, a situation may arise in which Russia's wait-and-see attitude will lead to Russian troops being able to recover, stabilize their positions and again try to seize the initiative on the field. fight.
Kofman and Li write that after the defeats near Kharkov and Kherson , the Russian army was vulnerable, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses, used up ammunition in these operations, and were forced to focus on their own recovery, and not on further attacks. Fortunately for Ukraine, military analysts note, the Russian political leadership was impatient, abandoning a defensive strategy and replacing the more competent General Sergei Surovikin with Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who launched an ill-conceived and untimely offensive through the Donbass in late January 2023.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
The high activity of Ukrainian unmanned aircraft continues in the border regions of the Russian Federation.
In the Bryansk region , with the help of a drone, a recruiting station in the town of Starodub was attacked - three ammunition was dropped from a drone. The building received minor damage. Also, with the help of a UAV, an attack was made on the oil depot in Klintsy , as a result, the concrete base and the tank were damaged, there were no casualties.
In the Kursk region in the city of Zheleznogorsk , a self-made UAV about 4 m long was found , made from a water pipe and furniture fittings. There were no casualties.
According to 7x7 estimates , at least 53 drone incidents were recorded in Russia and the Crimean peninsula between May 1 and May 10. According to military researcher Kirill Mikhailov, which is cited in the publication, the goals of such attacks are “to show the Russians the proximity of war and the inability of the Russian authorities to fully protect their citizens” and “to force the Russian command to“ stretch ”air defense and electronic warfare to cover the territory of Russia”, respectively. reducing their density at the front.
After both the Ukrainian and American military, as well as representatives of the expert community , agreed that a Russian hypersonic missile "Dagger" was shot down in the Kiev region, an information campaign began in the pro-Russian segment of social networks, casting doubt on the correctness of the identification of the intercepted missile.
The well-known Russian military expert Ilya Kramnik wrote on his Telegram channel:
"About the "Dagger". The shown piece of the head part does not belong to either 9С7760 [the missile of the Kinzhal complex itself] or the closely related 9M723 [ballistic missile to the Iskander complex] in any of the known versions of their equipment.
Whether it belongs to a BETAB-500 [concrete-piercing aerial bomb] or something else, as well as some unknown version, I won’t undertake to say.”
Telegram also diverges the post of the propaganda channel "War on Fakes", which claims that the fragments of the rocket shown belong either to the BeTAB-500SHP concrete-piercing aerial bomb, or to some unknown rocket, but not to the "Dagger".
Following this, three Russian agencies at once - TASS, RIA Novosti and Interfax - spread the opinion of an anonymous source from the Ministry of Defense about the fundamental impossibility of shooting down the "Dagger" from the Patriot air defense system.
Note that even some Z-channels like "War Informant" do not consider these arguments convincing. And, for example, the author of the channel “Tanks. History and Modernity” notes that the difference between the fragments presented in Kiev and the appearance of the Kinzhal missile is explained by the fact that the Kiev shots show the warhead, which is usually located inside the hull. As reference images of warheads, photographs of a rocket that fell last year in the Stavropol Territory are given, where a similar element is captured next to fragments of the tail, characteristic of the "Dagger".
The Russian army shelled Toretsk , a city in the Bakhmut district of the Donetsk region . According to the regional prosecutor's office, 9 people were injured, houses were destroyed. The city was probably fired from the Smerch multiple launch rocket system.
“The shells of the occupiers hit a residential area,” the prosecutor’s office said in a statement. Five men and three women received injuries of varying severity. Among the victims there is a whole family - parents and their 23-year-old son.
According to the head of the Donetsk regional administration, one of the victims of the shelling is in serious condition.
Also, Russian troops shelled Slavyansk . According to the mayor of the city, Vadim Lyakh, the shelling was carried out with S-300 rockets, which hit a private house, as a result of which a local resident was injured. Later it became known that she died in the hospital. In addition, high-rise buildings, cars and other private houses were damaged.
The publication "Mediazona" draws attention to the record growth of military invalids in Russia. In April, 232 people appeared in the Federal Register of Disabled Persons - this is a historical record for registration in one month.
In total, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, 3,954 Russians have received the status of a disabled person due to a military injury. In previous years, the number of people with military disabilities in Russia has steadily declined, as veterans of previous military conflicts died and new ones did not appear.
"Mediazona" rightly notes that "the replenishment of the register of people with disabilities does not show in real time the number of seriously wounded at the front, since the registration of disability takes several months."
"Indestructible" long-range missiles
One of the categories of weapons and military equipment that has not yet been delivered to Ukraine was long-range missiles. According to CNN, the UK government has decided to transfer to the Ukrainians a number of Storm Shadow cruise missiles with an export range of up to 250 km. Known modifications of the rocket with a range of about 560 km.
According to Sky News, the missiles have already arrived in Ukraine. After media reports, the transfer of Storm Shadow missiles was officially announced by British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. He noted that such a measure is a "proportionate response" to the Russian escalation, in particular to attacks on civilian infrastructure.
It is still difficult to say from what carriers Storm Shadow is supposed to be used. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace mentioned that the delay in the delivery (the transfer of long-range weapons to Ukraine was first announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak back in February) was due to their adaptation to Soviet aircraft. The pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar wrote about the modernization of Ukrainian Su-24Ms to use Storm Shadow. Recall that earlier the Ukrainians managed to integrate the American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles with the on-board systems of the MiG-29 fighter.
Ukrainian military expert, reserve colonel Roman Svitan, in an interview with The Insider, noted that the launcher can be installed permanently:
“The fact is that this missile is [for] sea and air launch, and since it is [for] sea launch, then the launcher can be removed from the ship and put on a cart. That is, then put it permanently and launch rockets from it. As far as air launch is concerned, any aircraft that can simply pick it up and drop it will do. The aircraft that HARM is hung on can also lift Storm Shadow missiles into the air. Instead of HARM, hang Storm Shadow, lift it into the air, drop it, and then it goes by itself. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have MiG-29s that are equipped to work with HARM, which means they will raise Storm Shadow as well.”
Speaking about the purposes of use, Svitan noted that two or three such missiles can disable the Crimean bridge , one missile can sink a ship:
“Two or three missiles will disable the oil dock, not to mention the ammunition depots, fuel depots and decision-making centers in the bunkers. A wide range of deep, not frontal tasks. They hit the deep rear up to 300 kilometers.
At the same time, the expert noted that the Storm Shadow missile has a combined guidance system, that is, it has its own gyroscope, it remembers almost the entire route and is “almost indestructible”:
“Throughout the route, it communicates with the satellite and refines the route, and if there is no connection, then before the target, the connection with the satellite is forcibly turned on / off, and the location of the target’s thermal signature is clogged in the memory of the infrared guidance head. And right in front of the target, it overcomes air defenses at transonic speeds [using terrain features]. Right in front of the target, it rises two kilometers, accelerates and already at supersonic speed goes at an angle of 60 degrees and enters the target. It aims with an infrared homing head and EW means have no effect on it. At the stage of reaching the target, it is considered almost indestructible. This is a big plus of this rocket.”
With the receipt of Storm Shadow, the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for strikes in the operational-strategic depth of the defense of the Russian troops will increase significantly, which will certainly affect the preparation and conduct of the expected counteroffensive. Storm Shadow is now the most powerful and most long-range weapon supplied to Ukraine by Western partners. But the main advantage of these missiles lies in the profile and altitude of the flight (enveloping the terrain at a height of only a few tens of meters) and low visibility for air defense systems.
With these missiles, the Ukrainians are likely to be able to hit any target on the Crimean peninsula , including the Crimean bridge - the distance from the line of contact in the Zaporozhye region to the bridge is just about 250 kilometers, although the use of aviation is so close to the front, where Russian air defense systems are active, may be risky. Another likely target for strikes with Storm Shadow is Russian air bases .
The already mentioned expert Ilya Kramnik notes :
“The main problem with Storm Shadow is not its fundamental lethality or invulnerability – its capabilities are generally known and it is also possible to shoot it down. But the reaction to its possible transfer will require strengthening air defense along the entire arc from Belarus to the Crimea, at least at critical points (airfields, transport hubs, warehouses, and everything else). This is a low-flying stealth aircraft, for reliable detection and interception of which a layered air defense system with high density is required, that is, good coverage of areas of responsibility, that is, a large number of radars and launchers.
Armaments and military equipment
British Defense Minister Wallace also said that all the promised Challenger 2 tanks had arrived in Ukraine.
In turn, the representative of the US Command in Europe and Africa, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, said that Ukraine received over 600 types of weapons for the counteroffensive and this is "more than any army in the world has." O'Donnell spoke about this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine:
“We collectively, not only the United States, but also the international community, have provided Ukraine with about 600 types of weapons and ammunition, including Abrams and Leopard tanks, and Patriot systems. This is more than any army in the world has, especially a warring army. And Ukraine is doing great. Clearly, each type of weapon requires provision, ammunition and more, and much of today's discussions were devoted to providing air defense ammunition so that you can close the sky and, in particular, your ground forces when you launch your offensive.
Официальный аккаунт представительства Польши при ЕС опубликовал данные о передаче Украине 575 танков (из них 325 польских) и 28 истребителей (из них 14 польских МиГ-29). Из этого можно сделать вывод, что все обещанные Киеву польские МиГ-29 уже находятся на территории страны.
Кроме того, по словам президента Чехии Петра Павела, обсуждается поставка Украине чешских учебно-боевых самолетов L-159. Чехия уже согласилась поставить два ЗРК «Куб», предназначенных для поражения целей на средних и малых высотах.
Появилось первое видео турецких бронеавтомобилей Otokar Cobra II на вооружении ВСУ. Ранее о поставках данных машин не сообщалось.
США обвинили власти ЮАР в том, что они негласно морем поставляют в Россию артиллерийские боеприпасы. Как заявил посол США в Южно-Африканской республике Рубен Бриджети, к военно-морской базе Саймонстаун с 6 по 8 декабря 2022 года причаливало грузовое судно, которое загрузило оружие и боеприпасы перед отправкой в Россию. ЮАР эти обвинения отрицает.
Российские войска по-прежнему радуют ценителей новых образцов тяжелого вооружения необычными решениями. На этот раз на суд публике предъявлен МТ-ЛБ, оборудованный спаркой 2-УК-Т с 12,7-мм пулеметами ДШК. Как пишет блог Центра АСТ, пулемные установки ранее, вероятно, стояли на торпедных катерах проекта 123бис типа «Комсомолец», которые строились с 1939 по 1953 гг.
Не менее любопытным выглядит решение , реализованное на одном из добравшихся до зоны боевых действий танков Т-55. По всей видимости, это первый известный пример тяжелой техники, оборудованной двойной решеткой, призванной защитить машину от сброса боеприпасов с дрона (т.н. «мангал»).
О главных событиях войны 10 мая — в предыдущей сводке: « ВСУ контратакуют под Бахмутом, Пригожин манипулирует данными о снарядах, Путин рассказал об атаке на Кремль. Что происходит на линии фронта ».